Implications of some special elections

Chris Cillizza, who writes The Fix, a political horse-race column for the WaPo, takes a look at something most people don't notice: special elections. There are always several special elections in each Congress, because various members pass away, retire, or resign in the middle of the term. There are two coming up in the South: one in Louisiana, one in Mississippi. Both should go Republican, but have potential to go Democrat. If they do, we could see a ripple effect:

A loss in Mississippi, coupled with a setback in Louisiana, would set off a full-scale panic among House Republicans and could even trigger a few wavering Members to opt for retirement rather than run the risk of losing a re-election race.

There are already about 30 Republicans retiring from Congress this year. It's not hard to figure out why: it's not as much fun being in the minority as the majority, particularly if the President is a member of the opposite party. If the Democrats hold the House, the Senate, and the White House, which is likely, Republicans are not going to be a happy bunch. So those who have paid their dues are getting out now while the getting is good. And if they lose seats in the South, the last stronghold of the GOP, there is going to be battle royal for the soul of the party, which is going to get ugly. The few moderates left will start blaming conservatives for their losses, while conservatives will start making up all kinds of excuses and rationalizations for why the American people are unenlightened. If I were a Republican member of the House with some decent tenure, I would certainly be thinking about spending more time with the kids.