Commentary on Pennsylvania

So Hillary won the Pennsylvania Democratic primary. Congratulations to her. I am reminded, watching her win, that she is running as hard and as long as she is because she honestly believes that she is much better qualified to be President and change this country than Obama. It's not unreasonable on her part. She is smart, confident, competent, etc. And there is nothing that will convince her otherwise, until Obama wins. Lots of people are concerned that this race is causing rifts in the Democratic Party. I am somewhat concerned about that, but not so much that I would ask Hillary to quit. Staying in this race is a decision for her alone to make.

In the meantime, I can see some positives for her staying in the race. First, she is making Obama a better campaigner. Second, if and when Obama wins, he will be able to claim that he won the race fair and square. Hillary started out this race with every possible advantage. It was hers to lose, and it looks like she will. Obama has raised more money, but that's because more people want to give money to him. That's part of the democratic process. And the fact that the race is still competitive is inspiring lots and lots of people to get involved, not just by voting but by volunteering, which is all good. It's also keeping the conversation about the election going, and that's also good.

As for the meaning of this specific primary, I think Josh Marshall said it best:

I'd say the real story is that this leaves us basically where we were. It was a decisive win for Hillary but that was the expectation. Going into tonight I think the dividing line was about 8 points. Closer than that and the story would have been that Obama didn't win but closed the margin (which is how it looked early in the evening). A bigger margin than that and the story would be that Hillary got her big victory. So the 10 point spread is close to the dividing line but on Hillary's side of it. There's a lot of crowing from Hillary's campaign tonight about a shift in momentum and doubts about Obama. Tomorrow there will be a lot of chatter from Obama's campaign that none of that really matters because of the reality of the delegate numbers which won't change much.

Meanwhile, behind the numbers, there was some movement for Obama in some key demographic groups. Check out the numbers from the numbers from Kos. In just about every demographic, Obama made gains from Ohio, which is a very similar state. Kos also has a great breakdown of why, in terms of campaign strategies and tactics, Obama lost. Basically, it was inevitable, but he did as well as he could. The state political machine was against him. That's gonna hurt.

And I think the party will unite behind the nominee. Right now, a lot of Hillary supporters are unhappy that she is behind, and some of them are not happy about the attacks on her. But as soon as a nominee is chosen, and, assuming it's Obama, Hillary will start to campaign for him, and her supporters will follow her. And once they start listening to him as the Democratic candidate, rather than as an opponent in the Democratic primary, they will start to be inspired. And the depth of the anti-Republican furor cannot be underestimated. This is from yesterday's LA Times, about an elderly couple in rural Pennsylvania (the writer's parents). This is the husband:

In the 1980s, he was a Reagan Republican. Now, he told me, "I don't care if they nominate a one-armed orangutan, I'm voting for the Democrat."

Obama constantly reminds us that change is hard. It is also weird.