The LA Times runs a weekly feature projecting the box office numbers for the top ten movies. I'm only interested in two movies this weekend, Wall-e and Wanted. The Times has Wall-e at $66.8 million and Wanted at $39.5 million. I think the Wall-E estimate is on the low end, while Wanted is probably about right, maybe a little low. I use the Hollywood Stock Exchange for my predictions.
On HSX, the Wall-e is trading at H$198.33, which translates to an opening weekend of $70 million. Also, it's up H$5.67 today, which is a sign that it will open well, possibly above $70M. The strike price for the Wall-E options is H$65, with the call halting at H$7.59, and the put halting at H$1.87. The price for the call suggests an opening around $75M. So I'm looking for about $72, possibly higher.
Wanted has been relatively stable, between about H$113 and H$136 recently. It halted today at H$120.58, which translates to an opening weekend of H$43. It is also up for the day, by H$6.87, which suggests an opening of somewhere around $45M. However, the strike price for the Wanted options is $45, but the call is at H$2.00, while the put is at $5.12. That's more pessimistic, so I am going to go with $42M for Wanted.
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