Three movies opening wide (plus one limited releases going wide), Bride Wars (BDRWR) and Unborn (UNBRN), and Not Easily Broken (NESBR). The limited release is Gran Torino, which I am not going to be analyzing. Bride Wars looks like it should be a modest hit, Unborn might do decent business, while Not Easily Broken will probably struggle to exceed low expectations. I'm long on all of them, although NESBR is underwater. Oops! I also made what are probably the wrong calls on the options. Strike price is $5, and I'm long the call and short the put. Guess I was too optimistic. It's only being released on 700 or so screens.
I'm long on the call and short the put on BRDWR (strike price: $20) while I'm short the call and long the put UNBRN (strike price: $15). For the horror pic, the stock indicates weekend business of around $11 million. No way is it going to make the strike price.
Update: Gran Torino did extremely well, Clint Eastwood's best opening ever. At 78! His 29th film as a director! It halted at H$50, and adjusted to H$98. Never thot I would see the day when Clint Eastwood was seriously underestimated as a box office draw.
Bride Wars adjusted up H$0.65, so the market just about nailed that one. Unborn was a surprise, adjusting way up to H$56, a jump of H$25. Of course, horror is my least favorite genre, so it's not surprise that I got it completely wrong. Not Easily Broken did, in fact, exceed low expectations. Never underestimate the ability of HSX players to underestimate the African-American market.
So everything adjusted up, and I was long on all of them. I made the right bets on the options, except Unborn, where I lost H$8,000, which is less than pocket change. So Hollywood made lots of money, and so did I. A good weekend was had by all.
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