Friday, January 9, 2009

HSX Openers week of January 9, 2009

Three movies opening wide (plus one limited releases going wide), Bride Wars (BDRWR) and Unborn (UNBRN), and Not Easily Broken (NESBR). The limited release is Gran Torino, which I am not going to be analyzing. Bride Wars looks like it should be a modest hit, Unborn might do decent business, while Not Easily Broken will probably struggle to exceed low expectations. I'm long on all of them, although NESBR is underwater. Oops! I also made what are probably the wrong calls on the options. Strike price is $5, and I'm long the call and short the put. Guess I was too optimistic. It's only being released on 700 or so screens.

I'm long on the call and short the put on BRDWR (strike price: $20) while I'm short the call and long the put UNBRN (strike price: $15). For the horror pic, the stock indicates weekend business of around $11 million. No way is it going to make the strike price.

Update: Gran Torino did extremely well, Clint Eastwood's best opening ever. At 78! His 29th film as a director! It halted at H$50, and adjusted to H$98. Never thot I would see the day when Clint Eastwood was seriously underestimated as a box office draw.

Bride Wars adjusted up H$0.65, so the market just about nailed that one. Unborn was a surprise, adjusting way up to H$56, a jump of H$25. Of course, horror is my least favorite genre, so it's not surprise that I got it completely wrong. Not Easily Broken did, in fact, exceed low expectations. Never underestimate the ability of HSX players to underestimate the African-American market.

So everything adjusted up, and I was long on all of them. I made the right bets on the options, except Unborn, where I lost H$8,000, which is less than pocket change. So Hollywood made lots of money, and so did I. A good weekend was had by all.

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