HSX Openers: Week of January 16, 2009

There are several movies going wide this weekend. January is generally not a great month for movies. Studios used to dump total bombs in January, because they didn't want to compete with all the Oscar-bait movies released in December. Of course, that also meant that there was a dearth of good movies being released, so some studios are now releasing at least halfway decent movies in January, to take advantage of the weak competition from the bombs. It's a four-day weekend (Martin Luther King, Jr. Day is on Monday), so the stocks will be halted through Monday, and will then be adjusted by a multiplier of 2.2. Defiance is going wide, but I'm not going to try to predict it. Interestingly, all the options have strike prices of $15.

Hotel for Dogs (HTLDG) is a family comedy starring Julia Roberts' niece, Emma, and Don Cheadle. It's been trending steadily up. The stock is at H$37 right now, so the stock and options are in alignment.
Stock: Long
Call: Long
Put: Short

Last Chance Harvey (LCHRV) stars Dustin Hoffman and Emma Thompson in a serious romantic drama. Looks a little heavy, but gotta love the cast. It's trading up, and the trend looks good, but the stock is very cheap, around H$8. There are no options, because, like Defiance, it's already opened in limited release. I'm going long.

My Bloody Valentine 3D (MBVAL) is a horror movie. I have no interest, but, again, the trend is very good. It's at H$44. So prospects are better than HTLDG, which already looks good.
Stock: Long
Call: Long
Put: Short

Notorious (NOBIG) is a biopic about the Notorious B.I.G., the rapper. I'm starting to sound like a broken record, but it's the same story: trend is up, trading around H$40. Angela Bassett is in it, a very good sign. Love that woman.
Stock: Long
Call: Long
Put: Short

Finally, Paul Blart: Mall Cop (MALCP) is a Kevin James movie about, well, a mall cop, who has to save the day, with absolutely no gadgets or firearms. At least none that I can see in the poster. Could be funny. Trend lines aren't quite as strong, but still good. Stock is basically at the same place as the other movies opening this weekend, around H$38. Same prediction.
Stock: Long
Call: Long
Put: Short

I don't think I have ever seen a weekend with so many movies opening with almost exactly the same expectations. Very different movies, too. Which is nice, as they presumably will not be competing with each other. So horror movie aficianados, fans of the IDF and other people who like tough Jews, cute kids, rap fans, "serious" movie fans, and whoever watches Kevin James movies are all being well-served this weekend.

Update: Everything adjusted up, which was great. Mall Cop adjusted up spectacularly, like few stocks I have ever seen. For some bizarre reason, however, I sold it just before this weekend, so I missed a huge profit. Bummer, but it's a lesson to be more careful. Thank goodness I didn't short it, otherwise I would have been in real trouble. I think I might have missed moving up a point in the rankings.