Friday, December 19, 2008

HSX: Weekend of December 19

I'm blogging about this after the stocks have already halted, but I want to keep up my tradition as well as I can. This weekend we have three very different movies opening, all with solid ambitions. Seven Pounds (7PNDS) is a Will Smith. I've never been able to figure out what it's about, but it looks heavy. It's been dropping for weeks, but when it halted it was up H$5, to H$67.16. That's a good sign. I'm looking for an opening weekend of about $23 -$25 million. I'm holding it long, with my fingers crossed. The strike price is $25. I'm shorting the call and going long on the put, which looks like the right bet.

The Tale of Despereaux (TDSPR) is an animated movie about a French mouse. Sounds familiar, and reminds me of a French stew. This doesn't have the Pixar pedigree, it's been dropping steadily, and it was down H$3.34 at the halt, to H$43.98. I'm not optimistic about the opening weekend, but I found the trailer charming, so I am somewhat optimistic about its long-term prospects. I'm thinking an opening between $12 and $15 million, but my guess is that it will have legs, and will delist above the adjust. I'm holding it long. Didn't have a chance to short it this morning, which I probably should have done. Maybe I will be pleasantly surprised, and the market will be wrong. Unfortunately, it looks like I will be completely wrong about the options. The strike price is $20, which now looks highly optimistic. I'm long on the call and short the put, so I'll probably lose some cash there.

Yes Man (YESMA) is a Jim Carrey comedy, and it looks like it. I didn't find myself laughing at the trailer. It scored 44% on, and the positive reviews have only faint praise. Like the other two, it's been dropping, and halted at H$71, down H$2, and down about H$25 from its high. I'm holding it long, but wish I had shorted it about a month ago. Jim Carrey can still work some magic, and the world certainly could use some laughs, but this doesn't look strong. The strike price for the options is $25. The call is H$3.30, and the put is at H$1.35, which suggests an opening around $30 million, but they've been moving towards a little less than that. I'm just slightly on the optimistic side, I'm going to predict an opening between $27 and $29 million.

Update Monday: Well, I was almost completely wrong. They all adjusted down by more than H$10, and I lost a point in the rankings. My bad for blogging about them after the halt. So I hereby resolve to never do that again. I am also going to start printing out the calendar at the beginning of every week, to force myself to pay attention to HSX when I need to, and to do some basic planning.

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