HSX: Week of March 13, 2009

We've got three movies opening this weekend, a family movie/action movie (always a popular genre), a remake of a movie from the 70's: Race to Witch Mountain (WCMTN). I remember liking the movie way back when I was knee high to Variety. The trailer is funny. It stars Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson, who is becoming a decent movie star; he looks like he might be the next Arnold. The movie is at H$76, down H$4 for today, with a moderately upward trend. The call is just below H$4, but it's down H$1.25 for the day, which is not a good sign. It would have to clear $34 million to make the strike price (H$30), which would mean that it would adjust up to H$102. That's highly unlikely. Meanwhile, the put is moving up. It's on 3,187 screens, a good wide release. It needs to make almost $8,800 per screen (PSA - per screen average) to make the strike price. Last week a movie with nostalgia as its major marketing hook did not do as well as expected. I would like to see this movie, but I'm not rushing out to see it this weekend. It's at 43% on rottentomatoes.com. Finally, the Derby on boxofficemojo.com is predicting an opening of $28 million. Things are not looking good. I'm more comfortable with an opening in the low 20's.
Stock: Short
Call: Short
Put: Long

Then we have another horror movie remake - pretty much required, I suppose, for the second Friday the 13th in two months - The Last House on the Left (LHLFT). I know nothing about it, except that the original is from Wes Craven, who has a great track record in horror. Also, the stock is trading at its high, H$37, and the trend is solidly upward. The call is above H$4, right where it should be for a strike price of H$10. And, as expected, the put is sinking, to below H$1. Boxofficemojo is predicting $14 million, roughly the same as HSX. Not hard to call this one.
Stock: Long
Call: Long
Put: Short

The latest effort to convince the world that young American men are crude, horny beasts takes the form of Miss March (MSMAR), about a guy who wakes up after four years in a coma to find out that his former girlfriend is now a good personal friend of Hugh Hefner, and is the Miss March of the title. Fortunately for all of us with some semblance of taste, it looks like it's bombing, just like Fired Up. The stock is tanking. The strike price is about as low as possible, H$5, but even at that price, the call is not looking good. The put isn't in great shape either - I think it's going to come close to the strike price, so shorting both options is the option I'm going to go with. I'm guessing that it's going to hit about $5-$6 million, then hopefully disappear. Not that I am entirely opposed to Playboy, but this just looks stupid.
Stock: Short
Call: Short
Put: Short

Update Monday morning: My predictions, and those of the market, were very good this weekend. Race to Witch Mountain came in at $25 million, and The Last House on the Left came in at $14 million. The stocks for both adjusted by about H$2, so the market's predictions were very close. I was a little low for WCMTN, right on for LHLFT. Miss March came in below its ridiculously low expectations, at just $2.35 million. Someone's embarrassed.