The true cost of the 12 days of Christmas

I think we're still technically in the 12 days of Christmas. So, if you are so inclined, you still have time to get your True Love one or more of the presents from the classic song! Turtledoves are probably hot right now! And there's a wealth management company out there to help you figure out how much it's going to cost.

I didn't know this, but apparently PNC (not sure what it stands for), a financial company, has been calculating the cost of Christmas, as defined by the song "Twelve Days of Christmas," and reports on it each year, including a comparison with the cost from previous years. This year, the seven swan-a-swimming are much more expensive, but several other gifts on the list saw decreases, so the overall increase in the Christmas Price Index is right in line with the Consumer Price Index. The maids-a-milking got raises, because they make minimum wage, and that, of course, went up. The maids get minimum wage? That's a bummer. I would consider that at least a semi-skilled job. The total cost is $21,080.10, although I would dispute some of the costs. They buy 14-carat gold rings for $69 each. That's a cheap gold ring, although it's probably just the gold, with no embellishment. Still, if someone gave me a gold ring that only cost $69, I would be questioning her taste in jewelry, not to mention her sense of romanticism. And, quite possibly, her commitment to me.

They also calculate the "True Cost of Christmas," which is what it would cost to give all of the gifts if you repeated all of the verses (therefore 12 partridges in 12 pear trees, for example). That's $86,609. Now THAT'S true love. Of course, it also immediately raises questions - what do you do with all those swans and partridges?

Jim Dunigan, an executive at PNC, gives us the lowdown:

HSX: Christmas Day

We have several movies opening on Christmas Day. One reason for this, of course, is that lots of people have free time that day, after opening presents, to go see movies. But it's also the last possible day of the year to open a movie and have it qualify for the Oscars. A movie has to play for one week in a Los Angeles County theater in the calendar year to qualify for Academy Award nominations. If a movie is still playing when the Oscar ballots go out, presumably it is still very much in Academy members' minds, which will hopefully increase its chances.

That doesn't apply to all of the movies opening this Thursday, because some of them are clearly not in Oscar contention. Primary among those would be:

Bedtime Stories. Adam Sandler stars in this Disney comedy (BEDTM) about a man who tells stories to little kids. The stories start to come true. It's an interesting idea that could be very funny. Adam Sandler is very much a man-child, innocent yet raunchy, so there are possibilities. However, it's trading at H$104, down from a high of H$131. I shorted it. The strike price is $35 million, which sounds about right. The market mostly agrees with me. I'm long on the call and shorting the put.

In serious contention for Oscars, however, is:

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. Brad Pitt and Cate Blanchett, directed by David Fincher (BBUTN). This should be good. I don't like the movies that David Fincher directs (Seven, Panic Room), but that's mostly because I'm just not a fan of the genre. However, I love his music videos (Madonna's Vogue, Paula Abdul's Cold Hearted Snake). Stylistically, we can expect this to be very interesting. It's also down, trading around H$55, down from H$73. I bought it at H$1.14, so I have a 4,700% profit. I'm somewhat optimistic, because this is a good cast, and it's a unique idea (based on an F. Scott Fitzgerald short story). Strike price is H$15, which actually sounds a little low. I'm long on the call and shorting the put; market is sending the same signal.

In the Very Serious Drama Department, we have:

Doubt. Meryl Streep and Philip Seymour Hoffman, in a drama about a priest and a nun; she thinks he is sexually abusing a young boy. Highly relevant these days, unfortunately. A little too heavy for me, particularly around the holidays. It's already been released; it's now going wide. It was sinking for a while, but it's been going up steadily for the last couple of weeks, and is now trading at its high, H$15.91. Looks like a good one to hold long, which is what I am doing. Since it's already been released, there are no options for the opening. Talk about Oscar bait.

In the heartwarming category, good for Xmas, we have:

Marley and Me. Jennifer Aniston and Owen Wilson (although she's been getting vastly more attention for this than him) (MARLY). This is moving up very consistently, and is up H$6 today, to H$82, which is a new high. The buzz must be great. Very strong signals to go long and stay there. Strike price is H$20, which sounds even better than the H$15 strike price for BBUTN. The call is at H$4.47, another strong signal. I am, of course, long the call and short the put.

For the fanboy crowd, we have:

The Spirit. Another movie based on a comic book (SPIRT). This is tanking badly. It's up H$4 today, to H$25.92, but that's a bounce from the rock bottom price it hit yesterday, and down from a high of H$60. That's about the worst possible sign imaginable. I have it short at H$24. Rarely have I seen a stock sink so badly. Yesterday was the low for the year. That's almost unheard of. Must be terrible. Which is too bad, because I like Scartlett Johansson, and I bet she plays great noir. Strike price is H$10, which might be a record low for a movie based on a famous comic book. I have the call long and the put short, which is against my position on the stock. The last thing I am going to do is check this on Christmas morning. I don't think it's going to matter much.

Last, and probably least, is:

Valkyrie. Tom Cruise plays a Nazi (VALKR). A good Nazi, one who tried to assassinate Hitler, but a Nazi nonetheless. I knew someone once whose father was part of this plot. I also have a friend who is familiar with the German press' take on this. They aren't happy. I shorted it a long time ago, at H$40. It then went to H$80, which means I would have lost a ton of money, but it has since dropped to H$46. I expect it to keep dropping. I just can't see an audience for this. Strike price is H$15, which is right in line with the recent price. Still, I'm shorting the call and going long on the put. That's against the market, but I am very cynical about this movie. I like Bryan Singer (USC grad) as a director, but I think Tom Cruise looks like an idiot in the Nazi uniform with the hat.

Way late update: I was mostly right about this week. I was wrong about the options for BEDTM and SPIRT, and wrong about VALKR generally. That's a surprise. Otherwise, tho, it was a pretty good week.

Bing and Bowie

David Bowie and Bing Crosby sang "Little Drummer Boy" way back in the '70's. I've been thinking about posting the video, but Andrew Sullivan beat me to it. Here it is, anyways.



Sullivan isn't appreciative; he posted it as part of his "Christmas Hathos" series. He defines hathos as "the attraction to something you really can't stand; it's the compulsion of revulsion." He's one of those people who find the sentimentality of Christmas a little much. Too bad for him.

I disagree about this video. It may be cheesy, but that's probably because it's from the early 1970's. I like this because it's a little bit of an antidote to the political correctness I experienced in college. Way back in the late 1980's, it was very cool to be opposed to anything traditional. As we tended to do in college, we occasionally took that stance of principled opposition a little too far (sometimes a lot too far), which sometimes made it emotionally complicated for me to try and resolve my status as a descendant of and beneficiary of a lot of those traditions.

So it was refreshing for me to discover that someone as impeccably hip as David Bowie could have enough respect for someone as resolutely old school as Bing Crosby to actually work with him.

While I'm on the topic, I want to provide my own definition of political correctness in college. Liberals tend to dismiss charges of political correctness as a conservative conspiracy to discredit liberal academics. I find some truth in both charges. I agree with conservatives that there are a lot of very liberal academics, and they tend to skew discussions. I had a fair number of professors like that. But I also found that, if I challenged them, some of them listened. Not all of them, and I'm highly doubtful that there are that many who would buy my take on political correctness, but at least some of them tried. So my take on political correctness is that conservatives are right, there is an atmosphere of liberalism on most college campuses. But I can also see the liberal point that the conservatives just want to use the charge of political correctness to bash people they disagree with.

What both sides miss is that political correctness is not really a function of what goes on in the classroom; it is a function of what goes on outside the classroom, in every other area of college life. Political correctness is liberal peer pressure. That's it. At politically active colleges, you've got a bunch of very intense but unfocused young people, who are both compassionate and angry. They're looking for some way to change the world, but they're also looking for someone to blame. Sometimes their targeting computer settles on the nearest target, which is usually the person next to them in the dining hall, or in their dorm.

So this is why David Bowie singing with Bing Crosby is such a relief to me. He meets Crosby literally and figuratively on his own turf; he goes to Crosby's house, and he sings in his style. Sentimentality, in this instance, is a powerful antidote to cynicism.

Buy Nothing Day

Yesterday was "Black Friday," when millions of people start their Christmas shopping. I didn't, and thereby inadvertently participated in "Buy Nothing Day." I feel accidentally virtuous.

Ready for Christmas!

Contra Andrew Sullivan, I have been ready for Christmas since the election. Today, I felt like the Christmas season has officially begun: I heard "Feliz Navidad" by Jose Feliciano on the radio.

Starbucks

I just went to Starbucks to get my free coffee and some kind of sustenance - this is the kind of day when I have to remember to eat. Taking my own advice, I bought their Christmas CD. On the way home, I started crying almost immediately to Pink Martini's version of "Do You Hear What I Hear?" It's not the first time I've cried about this election, and I'm sure as hell not embarassed to admit it.

Ready for Christmas to start

Now that I have voted, I am just about ready for Christmas to start. OK, starting tomorrow, or, at the latest, after this weekend, when I have had a chance to really recover from this campaign.


Bring out Santa and the elves, crank up the carols, get those damn halls decked, find me a tree and some decorations. I am good to go. Shower me with good cheer, go right ahead. I can't wait for Rudolph and the three wise men and Mary and Joseph and the baby Jesus in the manger. Every year for about the last five, I have been saying that THIS year, I will be sending out Christmas cards.


Believe it this year. Assuming that what all the polls are predicting actually does happen, I will be showering the world with joy. I'll bake cookies for everyone I know. I'll be drinking eggnog every chance I get.


Just a few more hours. What's it like in Virginia right about now? Is North Carolina officially Obama country yet?