Next up is Bruno (BRUNO), Sacha Baron Cohen's second alter ego to hit the big screen, after Borat. This could be either a huge hit or not so huge a hit. It will make a lot of money, the only question is whether it will make massive amounts, or just lots. The subject matter is stirring up strong reactions and controversy, which is not necessarily a bad thing. It's at 70% on rottentomatoes.com, and we love that. I've laughed quite a bit at some of the trailers, so I am planning to see it, although I am not quite sure what to think of how politically incorrect it is. At least one gay friend is seriously bothered by it. I am reserving judgment, but I do plan to see it. The stock is at H$108, down from H$124, but holding up. The strike price is H$40, which is exactly in line with the stock price. The call (BRUCA) is at H$5+, but the put (BRUPU) is at H$3.30. I am not surprised at these split signals, given how controversial the movie is. The stock is predicting an opening of $40 million, the call $46 million or higher, and the put about $36 million or lower. I think the call might be on the high side, but I'm going to keep it long, because of the danger of too much upside. I have one reason for optimism in particular: Borat opened on only 837 screens, but did $26 million. With a lot more screens, and much more publicity, I think Bruno could do much, much better than that.
Update Sunday night: Looks like I picked the wrong week to believe in outrageous British satire. BRUNO had a solid opening on Friday, $14 million. It looked like it would meet the strike price, if not much more, but then it plunged on Saturday, and only would up doing $30 million for the weekend. So I got burned on all three securities. ILUBC, however, tanked as expected, so that made up for it a little bit.