I've looked at the campaign in terms of three issues:
Electability, Experience, and Moral Authority. Here's the summary:
McCain v. Obama:
Electability: Advantage: Neither. Tie.
Experience: Advantage: McCain, but not by much.
Moral Authority: Advantage: Obama.
McCain v. Hillary
Electability: Advantage: McCain
Experience: Advantage: McCain by a mile.
Moral Authority: Advantage: McCain, decisively.
McCain and Obama are basically tied. Many people will judge them on their policy differences. Those difference are profound, and I think Obama wins decisively. McCain is about the strongest supporter of the war you will find, while Obama has the best record of opposing of the Democrats still running. And, regardless of the details, Obama can be trusted to take health care more seriously than McCain. So, all else being equal, Obama wins on substance.
Hillary has some advantages on McCain in terms of substance - she's antiwar, at least now, and can claim to have learned a thing or two about health care reform. But in terms electability, experience, and moral authority, McCain wins decisively on all three.
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