It's starting to look like Hillary will drop out very soon. I and many other Obama supporters would be very happy about this. Many Hillary supporters will grudgingly acknowledge reality and start supporting Obama.
But there are a number of Hillary supporters who believe her arguments that she has won more of the popular vote, that she is a more experienced candidate, that sexism has poisoned this race, etc. What are these people going to do when Hillary drops out and declares her support for Obama? I think Hillary herself will be able to change direction on a moment's notice. She's very disciplined, she's had to have been thinking about this for the last few weeks, and she's a realist. She'll drop her talk about "winning more states" as fast as she dropped her demand for suspending the gas tax after the Indiana primary. Remember that idea? We didn't hear a word about it after Indiana, did we?
Many people have argued that she will say anything to win this election. More specifically, she will say whatever is in her best interests at a particular time. I have reluctantly come to that conclusion. I didn't use to think that, and I didn't want to think that, but I now agree that Hillary will say whatever is in her best interest at a particular point in time, truth be damned. In this respect, she is very much a regular politician, but she also seems to be more willing to engage in spin than even other politicians.
As soon as she drops out, the definition of what is in her best interest changes instantly. It is no longer in her best interest to say negative things about Barack Obama in order to enhance her own chances of winning the nomination. It is now in her best interest to sing Obama's praises.
But her supporters have a lot invested in her as their voice, as the best, most qualified candidate, etc. Many of them don't like Obama because she has been harshly critical of him. How are they going to deal with her change in tone? Are they going to accuse her of selling out? How are they going to express their frustration? If they're disappointed in her, are they going to listen to her, or are they going to take out their frustrations on her? I think Hillary has painted herself into a corner, and I don't think she realizes it. She is going to turn on a dime, and she is going to expect her supporters to do the same. And I think she is going to be in for a nasty surprise when they don't.
Then we're in a vicious circle: say some of her supporters express disappointment with her. How is she going to respond? She's probably going to argue that Obama won in a fair fight, which is what many Democratic elected officials are going to want her to say. Of course, it's also true. But that's contrary to what she has been arguing for the last few weeks, particularly regarding Michigan and Florida. So how are her supporters going to deal with her saying one thing one week and the opposite the next week? She'll make the argument that circumstances have changed, that's all water under the bridge, and that now the most important thing is that Democrats have to be unified.
The best approach for her supporters is to recognize that she's being gracious, and agree with her that the most important thing is for Democrats to be united. But many of them will feel like she is no longer speaking for them. Then what? How is she going to convince them that she is still speaking for them, despite losing?
I think one thing Hillary will do is point out how far women have come. She will point out that there are women alive today who were born before women could vote. Here's a factoid that most people have forgotten: when Hillary enrolled in Wellesley, many colleges and universities, including Yale, did not admit women. The military academies did not admit women until 1976, three years after Hillary graduated from Yale Law. Here's something to consider: John McCain graduated from Annapolis in 1958 and retired from the Navy in 1981. That was one year after the first women graduated from Annapolis. So John McCain went almost his entire naval career without knowing a single female graduate of Annapolis. David Petraeus graduated from West Point in 1974, two years before women were admitted. My guess is that many of the top generals and admirals in the military did the same - graduated from one of the military academies before women were admitted.
We now take women graduates of West Point, Annapolis, and the Air Force Academy for granted. The fact that we do is an indication of how far we have come.
I think the resolution of this swarm of contradictions is this: Hillary can encourage all women to take pride in her accomplishment of being the first woman to be seriously considered as a candidate for President. She can encourage them to take pride in their own accomplishments. She can say that she did not lose a race for the Democratic nomination, she won respect for all American women.
Taking this stance, that women can be proud of how far they have come, could be a first step in what I call reclaiming liberal pride in America. Conservatives claim that being proud of America requires unquestioning loyalty. But as liberals begin to get closer to victory in November, the dialogue will change. Liberals will start finding their own rationales for being proud of America. American feminists have, in 40 years, changed the status of women that has lasted for thousands of years. Such a dramatic change, so quickly, is nothing short of astonishing. Hillary is a product of that change, as well as an agent of it. If she takes this route, we may be only at the beginning of seeing Hillary in her role as a champion of women everywhere.
Monday, June 2, 2008
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