First Monday in October

This is the first Monday in October, which is the official start of term of the United States Supreme Court. "First Monday in October" is also the name of a movie about a woman who is the first female justice on the Supreme Court. I have no idea if it's any good; I've never seen it, I just remember the title. It stars Walter Matthau and Jill Clayburgh, so it might be good. I'm pretty sure it's a comedy.

This term is notable, of course, for the presence of Sonia Sotomayor, the first Hispanic member of the Court. She was officially sworn in September, but I wanted to note that today is the first day that she is sitting on the bench. Viva Sonia!

Mel Martinez Resigns - Culture Before Ideology

Mel Martinez, US Senator from Florida, resigned his seat, the day after he voted for Sonia Sotomayor to join the Supreme Court. He had already announced that he would not run for reelection in 2010. Senators don't decide to retire on the spur of the moment - this was a long time coming. Gosh, ya think maybe he stuck around just long enough to vote for Sotomayor? Hmmm, maybe.

He was elected in 2004, so he didn't even serve one term. Kind of like another Republican I can think of, from the opposite corner of the country. Simon Rosenberg has a nice capsule review of Martinez's career in the Senate (via Kos). George W. Bush appointed him as chair of the RNC to try to woo the Hispanic vote. He lasted less than a year in that job. Somehow not surprising.

John Ridley in HuffPost thinks Martinez's timing was meant to send a strong signal:

It's very, very hard not to see the timing as a statement. Not just against the Republican's attempted debasement of Sotomayor, and by association the Hispanic narrative in America. Martínez's move, too, can been seen as another accomplished person of color -- following Colin Powell -- flipping a metaphorical middle finger at all the Republicans have devolved into.

Family and culture are apparently stronger than ideology for Martinez. As they are for most people. Business ties are also presumably stronger. I know next to nothing about the man, but if he's from Florida, I can guess that that's where most of his contacts are. Many of those contacts are, presumably, Hispanic, and my guess is that he has been hearing some strong opinions from fellow Hispanics in Florida. He was probably facing ever-more pressure to make a choice between his party and his friends and family. By resigning the day after his vote for Sotomayor, he makes it as clear as possible that he was waiting for that vote to resign. Which, of course, means that he wanted to make a strong statement about where his allegiance lies. It ain't with the GOP.

Sotomayor is confirmed!

Say hello to the new Associate Justice of the United States Supreme Court: Sonia Sotomayor.

She got some Republican votes, but that's another battle in the culture wars that the conservatives just lost. Get used to it, guys, there's a lot more where that came from. This graphic from the NY Times shows how polarized the vote was.

Sotomayor's confirmation

Sonia Sotomayor's nomination to be the next Supreme Court justice started today. TPM has her opening statement. The NY Times has detailed coverage, particularly on their Times Topic page on her. I want to take a moment here and give some serious props to the NYT for their Times Topic idea. They collect lots of relevant information and articles about a topic in one place. That's just fantastic. This is what the Web should be for. This is what innovation on a newspaper Website looks like.

OK, back to Sotomayor. There is no question that she will be confirmed. Republicans are trying to paint her as biased in favor of minorities. Good luck on that one. White guys in suits - on camera - complaining about unfair treatment for other white guys is just pathetic.

For me, what's important to note about this is that it's one of the first moments when Obama can make a clear difference. He's already done that in several areas, but this is one time when he can nail a decisive victory. It's a slam dunk. More than that, it will also be an occasion to party. It will be an occasion to fire up the troops. There are, of course, some liberals and progressives who are disillusioned with Obama for various reasons. This is utterly normal. But moments like this are opportunities for Obama to remind those whose dreams have faded a little what is at stake here. A Hispanic woman, from a poor Puerto Rican background, is about to become a Supreme Court justice.

What's most important about this is not the fact that a Hispanic woman is about to become a Supreme Court justice, but that this particular earned this, and deserves it. In her statement, she said

The progression of my life has been uniquely American.

When I was a freshman in high school, one of the first assignments in my English class was to write about the American Dream. This would be a great example. Sonia Sotomayor, by living the American Dream, by personifying an idea that absolutely refuses to become a cliche, is doing two things at once. She is living that dream for herself. But she is also doing something that is itself quintessentially American: she is expanding the definition of the American Dream to include people like her. She is staking a claim to that dream, and there ain't a damn thing the most obnoxious Republican out there can do about it. Fortunately for all of us, there are lots of Republicans who are applauding this dream come true.

And now back to Obama again. Obama himself has done very little work to bring this moment to fruition. All of his staffers did the work to select her. He hasn't had to campaign much for her - her nomination is a foregone conclusion. He won't do anything once she is sitting on the bench. But he is the reason this is happening.

As momentous as this occasion is, however, it's also important to notice that this moment itself doesn't change anything. Sotomayor is not on the Supreme Court yet, and even after her confirmation, she won't be there for a couple of months. And then she won't issue any opinions for months after that. Then those opinions won't necessarily take effect immediately. Those effects will then take a while to manifest themselves.

But the effects of her presence on the Supreme Court will, in all probability, last for decades, and effect millions. Obama has done a lot of things since becoming president that have not had much effect yet; we are still fighting two wars, debates are still raging about torture, we don't know how well the stimulus package will end up working, GM and Chrysler haven't started making money yet.

But a Hispanic woman is about to become a Supreme Court justice for three reasons: 1, because she is qualified. 2, because this is America, and this can happen here. And 3, because Barack Obama nominated her.

Sign Sonia Sotomayor's cast!

The DNC has set up a Website for people to virtually sign Sonia Sotomayor's cast. Talk about turning lemons into lemonade! Sign it here.

Sotomayor and DADT

Sonia Sotomayor's nomination to be a Supreme Court justice looks like it's in good shape. There are a few fanatics out there attacking her, like Rush Limbaugh, but I think most conservatives are coming to terms with the fact that, barring something bizarre, she's a slam dunk. GOP senators in the southwest have to be nervous about voting against her and possibly alienating large chunks of the Hispanic vote. That would not be a good idea in places like Texas and Arizona.

I think this is potentially good news for repealing the Don't Ask Don't Tell policy (DADT). Why? They don't seem to be related. Bear with me.

Obama is currently spending a lot of political capital. He has been spending it for several months now. That's normal for a president early in his term. But what is also normal is that they don't get much of a return on spending that political capital until later.

Obama is spending massive amounts of political capital. He needs to spend massive amounts more, particularly on solving the Israel-Palestine problem. But he hasn't gotten any return on any of this spending of political capital yet. We don't know if the stimulus is working. GM and Chrysler are bankrupt, and we have no idea if they will be able to come back. We are still in Iran and Afghanistan. We are running huge deficits.

Putting Sonia Sotomayor on the Supreme Court will require spending very little political capital on Obama's part, but will deliver great returns. He doesn't really have to spend any political capital. Hispanics will be forever grateful to him for this. She will probably be on the Court for decades.

But changing DADT will be the exact opposite political equation: it will require large amounts of political capital, and will deliver good, but probably not great, returns. Gays and lesbians are mostly already in his court. They will be disappointed if he doesn't deliver on repealing DADT. OTOH, some moderates and conservatives will be upset about it. Obama is going to have to spend not just a fair amount of political capital changing it, but a fair amount of his time, as well. He is going to have to lay the groundwork. He is going to have to make it a priority.

Before he can spend that kind of political capital, Obama needs a return on the investment of political capital that he has already spent. Which is where Sotomayor comes in. Putting her on the Court will be one of his first major victories, a very early return on spending political capital.

More importantly, Sotomayor represents a victory over the obnoxious idiots dominating the conservative mediaspace right now. Newt Gingrich, a man who was washed up 10 years ago, is making headlines. He is spending some of his own political capital opposing Sotomayor and Obama.

Let's imagine that Sotomayor gets 80 votes in the Senate. Not an unreasonable supposition. That's a solid victory for Obama. Now let's suppose she gets 90 votes, because, honestly, there's really not much reason to oppose her. That's a decisive victory for Obama. Moreover, it's embarrassing for Gingrich and other conservative activists, because they will have spent time and energy on a hopeless and futile cause. And a black guy with a funny name, and a Hispanic woman, will have achieved a historic victory over some stupid white guys. That will marginalize Gingrich and Limbaugh, and make Republicans in the Senate slightly more wary of taking on Obama on social and cultural issues.

I don't know how much political capital Obama will spend on repealing DADT after Sotomayor's confirmation. He does have to take it on at some point. But I am fairly confident that he won't even get seriously started until that vote is taken to put the first Hispanic woman on the Supreme Court.

Sotomayor as wedge issue

I've been on a little bit of a hiatus from blogging, but I am inspired to get back because of some interesting polling about Sonia Sotomayor. I have been thinking that her nomination would precipitate some splits in the GOP. Turns out I was right. There is a huge gender gap opening up among Republicans. Men in the GOP are not enthusiastic - in the Gallup poll cited, the difference between the "excellent/good" rating and "fair/poor" is 19% to 63%, or -44%. Among women, it's 33% to 43%, or -11% (must be some rounding in there). I picked this up from Andrew Sullivan.

44% difference among Republican men. 11% difference among Republican women.

I wasn't expecting there to be a gap like this based on gender, but I am not surprised. I was and am expecting a gap between moderate Republicans - those that are left in the party - and the diehard conservatives. This could be one of many wedge issues the Dems use against Republicans. Wedge issues used to be the domain of the GOP. Affirmative action is a great example. Republicans used affirmative action to drive a wedge between African Americans and blue collar Democrats.

Sotomayor's nomination could drive a wedge between moderate Republicans who actually do get along with Hispanics, because, for example, they live near them, work with them, know them, are friends with them, or are even - like my Dad - related to them (my brother-in-law is from Mexico). These are the Republicans who just don't have any reason to resent people who are different than them. These are Republicans who believe in those old-fashioned, traditional values of common decency and respect for people who work hard.

There are even some diehard conservatives who fit into this group. My grandparents were fundamentalist Christian conservatives who gave money to people like Jerry Falwell, but they spent their winters in McAllen, Texas, right on the Mexican border, where they got to know some Mexicans, and they liked them, because they were decent, hardworking people, just like my grandparents. If my grandmother heard of a woman who rose from the South Bronx to a Supreme Court nomination by virtue of hard work and education, she would have said, "Good for her." Because those were her values.

These decent, respectful Republicans and conservatives are going to be embarrassed by and resentful of idiots like Rush Limbaugh and Tom Tancredo. That is, they will be more embarrassed than they already are.

I'm not going to dignify the debate about whether or not Sonia Sotomayor was nominated to the Supreme Court based on her race and gender by looking at the issues. Was she nominated to the Supreme Court because she is a Latina? Sure. My answer to any white American male who resents this is simple: shut the hell up. If you were born a straight white American male, like me, you were born one of the most privileged people in the history of the world. For you to complain about someone else being elevated to a position of privilege to balance our collective cultural abundance is the height of arrogance and pettiness. Being born a straight white American male doesn't guarantee that you will be successful. It doesn't mean that you will automatically have it easy. But it does mean that there are a lot obstacles that aren't in your way that are in the way for others who do not share your ethnicity, nationality, gender, or sexual preference.

There are legitimate issues about how long we should hold onto affirmative action, and how to redress past racial and gender imbalances and injustices. But this is not the time to debate that. This is the time to celebrate progress.

Any white American male who begrudges Sonia Sotomayor's accomplishments is a pathetic crybaby and a wimp. The problem for the Republican party is that there are a fair number of straight white American men who actually fit that description. Starting with Rush Limbaugh.

The problem for Rush Limbaugh is that a number of those decent, hardworking Republicans are members of the United States Senate.